What if Brazil had an electoral college?
A game on official TSE data, US-style: each state is worth its federal deputies + 3 senators (594 electors; 298 to win), and the state's most-voted candidate takes them all. In real life Brazil elects by a majority of valid votes: 50% + 1.
In 3 of 18 contests since 1989 the winner would have been someone else. (2026 round 2, 2022 round 2, 2022 round 1)
Live version of the 2026 count →
| Election | Most voted (popular vote) | Electoral-college winner | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 round 2 | Lula (PT) 51.78% | Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 318 electors | Yes |
| 2026 round 1 | Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.03% | Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 374 electors | No |
| 2022 round 2 | Lula (PT) 50.90% | Jair Bolsonaro (PL) 318 electors | Yes |
| 2022 round 1 | Lula (PT) 48.43% | Jair Bolsonaro (PL) 307 electors | Yes |
| 2018 round 2 | Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 55.13% | Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 385 electors | No |
| 2018 round 1 | Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 46.03% | Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 396 electors | No |
| 2014 round 2 | Dilma (PT) 51.64% | Dilma (PT) 336 electors | No |
| 2014 round 1 | Dilma (PT) 41.59% | Dilma (PT) 342 electors | No |
| 2010 round 2 | Dilma (PT) 56.05% | Dilma (PT) 347 electors | No |
| 2010 round 1 | Dilma (PT) 46.91% | Dilma (PT) 403 electors | No |
| 2006 round 2 | Lula (PT) 60.83% | Lula (PT) 402 electors | No |
| 2006 round 1 | Lula (PT) 48.61% | Lula (PT) 349 electors | No |
| 2002 round 2 | Lula (PT) 61.27% | Lula (PT) 582 electors | No |
| 2002 round 1 | Lula (PT) 46.44% | Lula (PT) 508 electors | No |
| 1998 round 1 | Fernando Henrique (PSDB) 53.06% | Fernando Henrique (PSDB) 486 electors | No |
| 1994 round 1 | Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) 54.28% | Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) 549 electors | No |
| 1989 round 2 | Collor (PRN) 53.03% | Collor (PRN) 472 electors | No |
| 1989 round 1 | Collor (PRN) 30.48% | Collor (PRN) 481 electors | No |
Electors by contest
Each bar holds 594 electors: one segment per state, width proportional to its electors, colored by the bloc of the state's most-voted candidate (red = left, blue = right) with intensity by their lead in the state — pale in tight races, deep in landslides, on the map's bins. Ordered from strongest left to strongest right; the center line is the majority. Hover for the state.
Valid votes: Flavio Bolsonaro 48.22% · Lula 51.78%
Valid votes: Flavio Bolsonaro 47.03% · Lula 45.16% · Escritor Augusto Cury 2.89%
Valid votes: Jair Bolsonaro 49.10% · Lula 50.90%
Valid votes: Jair Bolsonaro 43.20% · Lula 48.43% · Simone Tebet 4.16%
Valid votes: Jair Bolsonaro 55.13% · Fernando Haddad 44.87%
Valid votes: Jair Bolsonaro 46.03% · Fernando Haddad 29.28% · Ciro Gomes 12.47%
Valid votes: Dilma 51.64% · Aécio Neves 48.36%
Valid votes: Dilma 41.59% · Aécio Neves 33.55% · Marina Silva 21.32%
Valid votes: Dilma 56.05% · José Serra 43.95%
Valid votes: Dilma 46.91% · José Serra 32.61% · Marina Silva 19.33%
Valid votes: Lula 60.83% · Geraldo Alckmin 39.17%
Valid votes: Lula 48.61% · Geraldo Alckmin 41.64% · Heloísa Helena 6.85%
Valid votes: Lula 61.27% · José Serra 38.73%
Valid votes: Lula 46.44% · Garotinho 17.87% · Ciro 11.97%
Valid votes: Fernando Henrique 53.06% · Lula 31.71% · Ciro Gomes 10.97%
Valid votes: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 54.28% · Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 27.04% · Eneas Ferreira Carneiro 7.38%
Valid votes: Collor 53.03% · Lula 46.97%
Valid votes: Collor 30.48% · Brizola 16.51% · Lula 17.19%
The Chamber's current seat distribution (513, in force since 1994) is applied to every year, including 1989, for simplicity; 81 senators (3 per state). In first rounds with several candidates a plurality carries the state, as in the US; when nobody reaches 298 we mark “no majority” (in the US the House would decide). Voters abroad (ZZ) have no representation and are left out. Data: TSE; the 2026 runoff comes from the live publication.