50mais1

2026, round 1: how every state voted

Brazil has no electoral college: whoever reaches 50% + 1 of valid votes wins. The map shows where each bloc's votes come from and which states move.

ROACAMRRPAAPTOMAPICERNPBPEBAMGESRJSPPRSCRSMSMTGO
← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

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Brazil · 2026 · Round 1Left 48.22%·Right 51.78%Leading: Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.03% · Lula (PT) 45.16%

2026 runoff forecast: statistical projection by state

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Win probability · projection from round-1 votes

Left (Lula)

47%

Right (Flávio Bolsonaro)

53%

80% interval of the national share of valid votes
Left 43.16–56.04%·Right 43.96–56.84%
Status
Updated on 10/19/2026 · freezes on 24 Oct 2026 at 23:59 BRT·model 2026.1·20,000 simulations

Statistical forecast based on official TSE results and on polls registered with the TSE; it is not an opinion poll (TSE Resolution 23.600/2019).

Swing states

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In yellow, the swing states: they changed bloc at least 3 times between elections — or 4 times also counting turns between round 1 and round 2 — in the 10 elections since 1989, or have a lean index below 8 pts. Ordered from most volatile to most stable.