Swing states in Brazilian presidential elections

10 states are swing states: they changed bloc at least 3 times between elections — or 4 times also counting turns between round 1 and round 2 of the same year (round 1 measured by the leading candidate’s bloc) — in the 10 elections since 1989, or have a lean index below 8 pts. They appear in yellow across the site.

1989–2026 series: bloc ahead in each election

One row per state, one square per election. Color by the margin in that election, on the map's bins: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Filled square = round-2 result; hollow = round 1 (years without a runoff: 1994 and 1998). ✱ marks a bloc change versus the previous election. Ordered by number of changes.

State	89	94	98	02	06	10	14	18	22	26	Changes
RSSwing											5
MGSwing											4
APSwing											4
DFSwing											4
GOSwing											4
ACSwing											4
TOSwing											3
AMSwing											3
RJSwing											3
ROSwing											3
ES											3
PE											3
SC											3
SP											2
MS											2
PR											2
MT											2
RR											2
PA											1
AL											1
RN											1
PB											1
SE											1
CE											1
MA											1
BA											1
PI											1

color = margin (pale = tight, deep = landslide, map bins)
filled = round 2
hollow = round 1 (no runoff)
✱ = changed bloc versus the previous election
swing state

Share:WhatsAppXBluesky

Lean index by state

The lean index is the weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin in the 2026, 2022, 2018, 2014 runoffs (weights 40% / 30% / 20% / 10%). Positive = leans right; negative = leans left.

State

← Left0Right →

IndexRating

PI−53.05Solid left
BA−43.19Solid left
MA−43.13Solid left
CE−40.67Solid left
SE−36.12Solid left
PE−35.92Solid left
PB−32.55Solid left
RN−30.75Solid left
AL−19.97Solid left
PA−10.02Likely left
AM−6.52Lean leftSwing
AP−3.46Lean leftSwing
TO−1.78Toss-upSwing
MG+2.60Toss-upSwing
RJ+12.83Likely rightSwing
ES+16.16Solid right
RS+16.32Solid rightSwing
SP+16.51Solid right
DF+19.32Solid rightSwing
GO+20.83Solid rightSwing
MS+20.97Solid right
PR+27.31Solid right
MT+29.64Solid right
RO+38.17Solid rightSwing
AC+39.30Solid rightSwing
SC+40.63Solid right
RR+44.26Solid right

Scale of +60 pts in each direction; the gray central band is toss-up (|index| < 3). Yellow = swing state; the ring shows the current side of the index, deeper the larger the index.

Movement between round 1 and round 2 (runoff years only)

Runoff years only (1989, 2002–2026): the right − left margin in round 2 minus the bloc margin in round 1 (summing every candidate of each bloc). Positive = the state moved toward the right bloc between rounds. 1994 and 1998 had no runoff and are outside this table; see the series above.

State	Rating	Bloc changes (10 elections)	Reason	1989	2002	2006	2010	2014	2018	2022	2026
RS	Solid rightSwing	5	changed 5× · 2 between rounds	+13.61	+23.52	−1.26	+20.41	+22.55	−2.11	+3.20	−6.46
MG	Toss-upSwing	4	changed 4× · 1 between roundsindex: Toss-up	−7.06	+21.40	−12.10	+21.29	+13.90	−2.18	+1.55	−6.98
AP	Lean leftSwing	4	changed 4× · 1 between roundsindex: Lean left	+0.41	+31.36	−5.69	+31.45	+22.59	−2.02	+1.03	−5.81
DF	Solid rightSwing	4	changed 4× · 1 between rounds	−5.22	+41.99	−2.96	+45.32	+48.20	+2.75	+0.05	−9.61
GO	Solid rightSwing	4	changed 4× · 2 between rounds	−7.68	+30.03	−13.03	+22.24	+29.06	−5.34	+1.53	−15.56
AC	Solid rightSwing	4	changed 4× · 2 between rounds	−3.90	+42.18	−8.80	+34.80	+68.12	+7.73	+4.84	−3.40
TO	Toss-upSwing	3	changed 3× · 1 between roundsindex: Toss-up	−7.07	+23.99	−15.58	+26.04	+23.87	−2.71	+2.38	−5.45
AM	Lean leftSwing	3	changed 3×index: Lean left	−0.29	+30.32	+1.02	+21.65	+24.77	+0.61	+1.42	−4.18
RJ	Likely rightSwing	3	changed 3×	+5.33	+24.42	+2.19	+33.39	+31.15	+0.36	+1.09	−9.20
RO	Solid rightSwing	3	changed 3× · 1 between rounds	−4.03	+48.17	−5.38	+14.06	+15.82	+0.22	+3.70	−3.51
ES	Solid right	3	—	+4.47	+39.76	−5.91	+30.40	+34.80	−2.87	+2.11	−5.66
PE	Solid left	3	—	+0.07	+28.97	−3.33	+13.77	+46.57	−5.18	+1.57	−6.41
SC	Solid right	3	—	−8.65	+25.17	−4.69	+21.36	+21.17	−2.01	+1.91	−4.75
SP	Solid right	2	—	+1.81	+32.18	−4.28	+26.56	+37.63	−4.51	−0.40	−8.18
MS	Solid right	2	—	−5.83	+32.31	−2.88	+25.34	+28.25	−2.97	+1.08	−5.89
PR	Solid right	2	—	−2.00	+27.59	−5.03	+22.72	+19.79	−4.56	+2.46	−5.89
MT	Solid right	2	—	−14.40	+31.67	−9.50	+13.71	+18.59	−3.98	+2.25	−5.27
RR	Solid right	2	—	+5.57	+44.90	+2.79	+30.46	+25.00	−5.60	+2.88	−3.84
PA	Likely left	1	—	+7.19	+41.49	−3.83	+18.05	+27.15	−2.44	+0.02	−4.81
AL	Solid left	1	—	+2.85	+54.30	+1.06	+19.44	+29.25	−6.73	+0.84	−7.18
RN	Solid left	1	—	−14.53	+38.14	−3.34	+24.35	+18.10	+2.30	+3.08	−6.18
PB	Solid left	1	—	+5.54	+26.90	−6.34	+19.80	+22.75	−3.63	+1.58	−6.21
SE	Solid left	1	—	+5.18	+45.29	−9.65	+16.48	+16.45	−4.00	−0.35	−7.63
CE	Solid left	1	—	+18.12	+39.36	−10.96	+12.31	+14.58	+7.40	+5.60	−6.07
MA	Solid left	1	—	−6.71	+58.92	−7.36	+11.43	+17.24	−4.67	+0.62	−6.66
BA	Solid left	1	—	−17.60	+34.89	−8.86	+16.15	+21.58	−3.37	+0.50	−5.52
PI	Solid left	1	—	−3.47	+23.95	−11.21	+17.95	+14.66	−2.23	+0.70	−5.14

In percentage points of valid votes. Red background = moved left; blue = moved right.