AP · North

Amapá in presidential elections

Lean leftSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 4× in 10 elections · lean index below 8 pts (Lean left).

Lean index: −3.46pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 0.34%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 4; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.88% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)47.12%	−5.76 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)45.71% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)45.67% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)4.10% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.44% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.79% Samara (UP)0.11% Zema (NOVO)0.07% Clariana Barao (DC)0.05% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	+0.05 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)51.36% Lula (PT)48.64%	+2.72 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)45.67% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)43.41% Simone Tebet (MDB)6.36% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.39% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.68% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.29% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+1.69 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)50.20% Fernando Haddad (PT)49.80%	+0.40 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)40.74% Fernando Haddad (PT)32.77% Ciro Gomes (PDT)12.34% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)4.70% +9 more Marina Silva (REDE)2.20% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)2.17% João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.83% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.37% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)1.33% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.35% Vera (PSTU)0.14% Eymael (DC)0.06% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+2.42 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)61.44% Aécio Neves (PSDB)38.56%	−22.88 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)51.08% Aécio Neves (PSDB)25.44% Marina Silva (PSB)19.97% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.31% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.03% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.40% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.32% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.29% Eymael (PSDC)0.11% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−45.47 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)62.66% José Serra (PSDB)37.34%	−25.33 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)47.38% Marina Silva (PV)29.71% José Serra (PSDB)21.36% Plínio (PSOL)1.00% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.20% Eymael (PSDC)0.13% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.12% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.08% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−56.78 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)70.40% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)29.60%	−40.80 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)54.40% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)32.19% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)10.06% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)3.10% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.14% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.06% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06%	−35.11 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)75.51% José Serra (PSDB)24.49%	−51.03 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.94% Garotinho (PSB)26.16% Ciro (PPS)14.58% José Serra (PSDB)8.80% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.49% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03%	−82.39 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)42.32% Lula (PT)38.68% Ciro Gomes (PPS)15.71% Enéas (PRONA)2.01% +8 more Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.28% Sirkis (PV)0.20% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.14% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.12% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.08% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.06% Eymael (PSDC)0.04%	−10.13 pts	Left bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)59.11% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)26.79% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)9.07% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)2.29% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.13% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.78% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.56% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.28%	+44.86 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)64.25% Lula (PT)35.75%	+28.50 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)48.42% Lula (PT)24.09% Brizola (PDT)5.65% Afif (PL)4.95% +18 more Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)4.45% Mario Covas (PSDB)4.23% Maluf (PDS)2.25% Roberto Freire (PCB)1.02% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.80% Eneas (PRONA)0.61% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.60% Marronzinho (PSP)0.50% Livia Maria (PN)0.38% Zamir (PCN)0.37% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.37% P.G. (PP)0.28% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.25% Gabeira (PV)0.23% Celso Brant (PMN)0.22% Pedreira (PPB)0.18% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.16% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+28.09 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2026(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc