BA · Northeast

Bahia in presidential elections

Solid left

Lean index: −43.19pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 7.33%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)71.31% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)28.69%	−42.63 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)66.17% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)28.53% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.28% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.43% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.37% Zema (NOVO)0.08% Samara (UP)0.05% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	−37.11 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)72.12% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)27.88%	−44.24 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)69.73% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)24.31% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.58% Simone Tebet (MDB)2.34% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.77% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.14% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−44.74 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)72.69% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)27.31%	−45.39 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)60.28% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)23.41% Ciro Gomes (PDT)9.41% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)2.35% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.88% Marina Silva (REDE)0.83% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.59% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.45% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.43% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.28% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	−42.02 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)70.15% Aécio Neves (PSDB)29.85%	−40.30 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)61.43% Marina Silva (PSB)18.38% Aécio Neves (PSDB)18.28% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.80% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.53% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.22% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.22% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Eymael (PSDC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−61.88 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)70.85% José Serra (PSDB)29.15%	−41.71 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)62.62% José Serra (PSDB)20.98% Marina Silva (PV)15.74% Plínio (PSOL)0.46% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Eymael (PSDC)0.05% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−57.86 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)78.08% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)21.92%	−56.16 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)66.65% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)26.03% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.29% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.71% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.15% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.09% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.08%	−47.30 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)65.69% José Serra (PSDB)34.31%	−31.39 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)55.28% José Serra (PSDB)16.86% Ciro (PPS)14.09% Garotinho (PSB)13.42% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.30% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.06%	−66.28 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)50.92% Lula (PT)35.34% Ciro Gomes (PPS)8.44% Enéas (PRONA)2.33% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.52% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.50% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.40% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.39% Sirkis (PV)0.36% Eymael (PSDC)0.29% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.27% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.23%	+8.89 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)52.40% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)35.20% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.50% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)4.42% +4 more Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)1.24% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.96% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.80% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.50%	+27.69 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)51.68% Lula (PT)48.32%	+3.35 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)34.77% Lula (PT)25.93% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)15.75% Mario Covas (PSDB)6.14% +18 more Brizola (PDT)5.66% Afif (PL)2.49% Maluf (PDS)1.78% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.86% Eneas (PRONA)0.78% Zamir (PCN)0.77% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.76% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.74% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.61% Marronzinho (PSP)0.60% P.G. (PP)0.56% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.51% Livia Maria (PN)0.42% Gabeira (PV)0.25% Pedreira (PPB)0.21% Celso Brant (PMN)0.21% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.20% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+20.95 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc