CE · Northeast

Ceará in presidential elections

Solid left

Lean index: −40.67pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 4.72%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)68.93% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)31.07%	−37.86 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)63.29% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)31.27% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.50% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.92% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.81% Zema (NOVO)0.08% Samara (UP)0.06% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	−31.79 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.97% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)30.03%	−39.94 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)65.91% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)25.38% Ciro Gomes (PDT)6.80% Simone Tebet (MDB)1.22% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.45% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.13% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.04% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−45.54 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)71.11% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)28.89%	−42.21 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Ciro Gomes (PDT)40.95% Fernando Haddad (PT)33.12% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)21.74% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.12% +9 more Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)1.09% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.57% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.48% Marina Silva (REDE)0.37% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.31% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.17% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	−49.61 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)76.73% Aécio Neves (PSDB)23.27%	−53.47 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)68.28% Aécio Neves (PSDB)14.98% Marina Silva (PSB)14.12% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.16% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.57% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.35% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.31% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.10% Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−68.05 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)77.35% José Serra (PSDB)22.65%	−54.71 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)66.30% José Serra (PSDB)16.36% Marina Silva (PV)16.36% Plínio (PSOL)0.73% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.09% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−67.02 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)82.38% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)17.62%	−64.76 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)71.22% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)22.79% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)3.72% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.96% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.14% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.11% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.07%	−53.80 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)71.78% José Serra (PSDB)28.22%	−43.57 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Ciro (PPS)44.49% Lula (PT)39.36% José Serra (PSDB)8.53% Garotinho (PSB)7.47% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.13% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−82.93 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Ciro Gomes (PPS)34.24% Lula (PT)32.84% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)30.31% Enéas (PRONA)0.46% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.41% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.34% Sirkis (PV)0.32% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.24% Eymael (PSDC)0.23% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.23% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.23% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.15%	−36.78 pts	Left bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)61.19% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)26.99% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.46% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)3.00% +4 more Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)2.01% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.05% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.94% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.36%	+43.92 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)56.91% Lula (PT)43.09%	+13.82 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)33.09% Brizola (PDT)19.43% Mario Covas (PSDB)18.34% Lula (PT)12.36% +18 more Maluf (PDS)4.18% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)3.28% Afif (PL)2.31% P.G. (PP)0.96% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.90% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.89% Livia Maria (PN)0.58% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.53% Marronzinho (PSP)0.53% Eneas (PRONA)0.45% Zamir (PCN)0.40% Gabeira (PV)0.39% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.34% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.30% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.28% Pedreira (PPB)0.24% Celso Brant (PMN)0.22% Correa (PMB)0.00%	−4.30 pts	Left bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc