MA · Northeast

Maranhão in presidential elections

Solid left

Lean index: −43.13pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 3.25%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.54% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)30.46%	−39.07 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)63.99% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)30.90% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.12% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.51% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.25% Zema (NOVO)0.11% Samara (UP)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.04% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−32.41 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)71.14% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)28.86%	−42.27 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)68.84% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)26.02% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.54% Simone Tebet (MDB)2.07% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.23% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.12% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.12% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.02% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−42.89 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)73.26% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)26.74%	−46.52 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)61.26% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)24.28% Ciro Gomes (PDT)8.39% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.55% +9 more Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)1.50% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.02% Marina Silva (REDE)0.70% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.51% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.48% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.19% Vera (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (DC)0.02% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.01%	−41.85 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)78.76% Aécio Neves (PSDB)21.24%	−57.52 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)69.55% Marina Silva (PSB)17.01% Aécio Neves (PSDB)11.62% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.71% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.42% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.22% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.21% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.14% Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−74.76 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)79.09% José Serra (PSDB)20.91%	−58.18 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)70.65% José Serra (PSDB)15.09% Marina Silva (PV)13.59% Plínio (PSOL)0.41% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.11% Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−69.61 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)84.63% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)15.37%	−69.26 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)75.50% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)18.81% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)2.86% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.58% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.13% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.06% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.05%	−61.90 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)58.48% José Serra (PSDB)41.52%	−16.97 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)40.88% Garotinho (PSB)24.63% Ciro (PPS)22.10% José Serra (PSDB)12.05% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.29% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−75.89 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)48.63% Lula (PT)29.39% Ciro Gomes (PPS)16.27% Enéas (PRONA)1.65% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.75% Sirkis (PV)0.73% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.63% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.59% Eymael (PSDC)0.46% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.32% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.31% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.28%	+3.29 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)62.25% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)23.15% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)5.76% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.87% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.68% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.39% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)1.37% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.53%	+50.35 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)62.44% Lula (PT)37.56%	+24.87 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)46.93% Lula (PT)19.67% Brizola (PDT)8.97% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)5.60% +18 more Afif (PL)4.16% Mario Covas (PSDB)3.40% Maluf (PDS)2.77% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)1.25% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.98% P.G. (PP)0.94% Eneas (PRONA)0.66% Zamir (PCN)0.65% Marronzinho (PSP)0.64% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.62% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.58% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.58% Livia Maria (PN)0.53% Gabeira (PV)0.31% Pedreira (PPB)0.26% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.25% Celso Brant (PMN)0.25% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+31.58 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc