MG · Southeast

Minas Gerais in presidential elections

Toss-upSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 4× in 10 elections · lean index below 8 pts (Toss-up).

Lean index: +2.60pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 10.13%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 4; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)50.40% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)49.60%	−0.79 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)48.24% Lula (PT)43.33% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.42% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.06% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.92% Zema (NOVO)0.82% Samara (UP)0.09% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Clariana Barao (DC)0.03% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+6.19 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)50.20% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)49.80%	−0.40 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)48.29% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)43.60% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.17% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.58% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.82% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.37% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Léo Péricles (UP)0.04% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−1.95 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)58.19% Fernando Haddad (PT)41.81%	+16.38 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)48.31% Fernando Haddad (PT)27.65% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.64% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)4.61% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)3.88% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.02% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.00% Marina Silva (REDE)0.89% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.46% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.43% Vera (PSTU)0.06% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	+18.56 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)52.40% Aécio Neves (PSDB)47.60%	−4.81 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)43.47% Aécio Neves (PSDB)39.75% Marina Silva (PSB)14.00% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.26% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.61% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.49% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.23% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (PSDC)0.05% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.05% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−18.71 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)58.45% José Serra (PSDB)41.55%	−16.89 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)46.98% José Serra (PSDB)30.76% Marina Silva (PV)21.25% Plínio (PSOL)0.72% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.09% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.09% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.06% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−38.18 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)65.19% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)34.81%	−30.38 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.80% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)40.62% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.67% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.66% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.14% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.05%	−18.28 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)66.45% José Serra (PSDB)33.55%	−32.89 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)53.01% José Serra (PSDB)22.86% Garotinho (PSB)14.44% Ciro (PPS)9.16% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.47% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.07%	−54.29 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)55.68% Lula (PT)28.06% Ciro Gomes (PPS)11.64% Enéas (PRONA)2.07% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.48% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.39% Sirkis (PV)0.38% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.34% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.34% Eymael (PSDC)0.26% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.19% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.19%	+17.43 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)64.82% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)21.90% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)6.84% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.32% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.13% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.95% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.63% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.39%	+54.29 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)55.51% Lula (PT)44.49%	+11.03 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)36.12% Lula (PT)23.11% Mario Covas (PSDB)10.30% Afif (PL)6.48% +18 more Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)5.92% Brizola (PDT)5.40% Maluf (PDS)3.55% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)2.93% Roberto Freire (PCB)1.28% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.04% Eneas (PRONA)0.84% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.52% Marronzinho (PSP)0.49% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.42% Zamir (PCN)0.37% P.G. (PP)0.30% Livia Maria (PN)0.28% Celso Brant (PMN)0.18% Gabeira (PV)0.18% Pedreira (PPB)0.15% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.13% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+18.09 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2026(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc