MS · Center-West

Mato Grosso do Sul in presidential elections

Solid right

Lean index: +20.97pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 1.26%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 2; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)59.60% Lula (PT)40.40%	+19.20 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)58.60% Lula (PT)34.68% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.63% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.14% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.56% Zema (NOVO)0.19% Samara (UP)0.09% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+25.09 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)59.49% Lula (PT)40.51%	+18.99 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)52.70% Lula (PT)39.04% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.29% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.95% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.54% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.34% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.07% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.02% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+17.91 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)65.22% Fernando Haddad (PT)34.78%	+30.44 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)55.06% Fernando Haddad (PT)23.87% Ciro Gomes (PDT)8.04% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)6.51% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.90% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.30% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.03% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.90% Marina Silva (REDE)0.88% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.44% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Eymael (DC)0.02% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+33.41 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)56.35% Dilma (PT)43.65%	+12.69 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)41.33% Dilma (PT)37.50% Marina Silva (PSB)19.08% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.79% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.52% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.34% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.30% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.07% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−15.56 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)55.13% Dilma (PT)44.87%	+10.26 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)42.35% Dilma (PT)39.86% Marina Silva (PV)16.88% Plínio (PSOL)0.70% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−15.08 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)55.02% Lula (PT)44.98%	+10.03 pts	Right bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)56.25% Lula (PT)35.99% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.57% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.98% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.13% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04%	+12.91 pts	Right bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.14% José Serra (PSDB)44.86%	−10.28 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)41.49% José Serra (PSDB)28.71% Garotinho (PSB)15.89% Ciro (PPS)13.50% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.39% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−42.59 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)61.26% Lula (PT)24.73% Ciro Gomes (PPS)10.59% Enéas (PRONA)1.41% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.38% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Sirkis (PV)0.30% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.27% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.26% Eymael (PSDC)0.20% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.17% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.10%	+26.96 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)63.59% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)22.25% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)6.15% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.87% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.77% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.67% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.40% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.30%	+51.97 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)72.85% Lula (PT)27.15%	+45.69 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)53.23% Lula (PT)8.99% Brizola (PDT)7.77% Afif (PL)7.32% +18 more Mario Covas (PSDB)6.15% Maluf (PDS)5.76% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)5.38% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.32% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.74% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.64% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.53% Eneas (PRONA)0.36% Livia Maria (PN)0.32% Marronzinho (PSP)0.29% Zamir (PCN)0.25% P.G. (PP)0.25% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.16% Celso Brant (PMN)0.16% Gabeira (PV)0.15% Pedreira (PPB)0.13% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.10% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+51.52 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc