MT · Center-West

Mato Grosso in presidential elections

Solid right

Lean index: +29.64pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 1.65%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 2; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)66.06% Lula (PT)33.94%	+32.12 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)65.15% Lula (PT)29.18% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.01% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.66% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.66% Zema (NOVO)0.12% Clariana Barao (DC)0.09% Samara (UP)0.08% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+37.39 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)65.08% Lula (PT)34.92%	+30.17 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)59.84% Lula (PT)34.39% Simone Tebet (MDB)3.04% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.60% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.69% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.24% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.14% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.02% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+27.92 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)66.42% Fernando Haddad (PT)33.58%	+32.84 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)60.04% Fernando Haddad (PT)24.76% Ciro Gomes (PDT)5.59% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)4.13% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.59% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.02% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.80% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.79% Marina Silva (REDE)0.76% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.42% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Eymael (DC)0.04% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+36.82 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)54.68% Dilma (PT)45.32%	+9.36 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.48% Dilma (PT)39.52% Marina Silva (PSB)14.11% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.65% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.59% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.29% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.26% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (PSDC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−9.23 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)51.11% Dilma (PT)48.89%	+2.22 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)44.16% Dilma (PT)42.94% Marina Silva (PV)12.00% Plínio (PSOL)0.74% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.04% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.03% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−11.49 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)50.31% Lula (PT)49.69%	+0.62 pts	Right bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)54.82% Lula (PT)38.65% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.11% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.18% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.13% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05%	+10.12 pts	Right bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)54.46% José Serra (PSDB)45.54%	−8.93 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)40.64% José Serra (PSDB)29.70% Garotinho (PSB)14.97% Ciro (PPS)14.45% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.21% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03%	−40.60 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)73.10% Lula (PT)16.46% Ciro Gomes (PPS)7.45% Enéas (PRONA)1.32% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.39% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.24% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.22% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.22% Sirkis (PV)0.21% Eymael (PSDC)0.18% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.12% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.09%	+50.10 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)64.29% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)19.10% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)5.22% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)5.08% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)3.33% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)2.04% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.68% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.26%	+55.14 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)66.39% Lula (PT)33.61%	+32.78 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)46.60% Lula (PT)10.36% Brizola (PDT)10.16% Afif (PL)9.04% +18 more Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)7.59% Maluf (PDS)5.90% Mario Covas (PSDB)4.52% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.34% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.67% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.59% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.55% Marronzinho (PSP)0.39% Eneas (PRONA)0.37% Zamir (PCN)0.35% Livia Maria (PN)0.33% P.G. (PP)0.32% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.24% Gabeira (PV)0.20% Celso Brant (PMN)0.19% Pedreira (PPB)0.15% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.14% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+47.18 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc