PA · North

Pará in presidential elections

Likely left

Lean index: −10.02pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 3.94%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.01% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)44.99%	−10.02 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.91% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)44.50% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.57% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.73% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.07% Samara (UP)0.08% Zema (NOVO)0.06% Clariana Barao (DC)0.03% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−5.21 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)54.75% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)45.25%	−9.50 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)52.22% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)40.27% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.36% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.48% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.41% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.13% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−9.52 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)54.81% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)45.19%	−9.61 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)41.39% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)36.19% Ciro Gomes (PDT)10.03% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)5.53% +9 more Henrique Meirelles (MDB)2.43% Marina Silva (REDE)1.30% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.24% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.78% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.68% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.30% Vera (PSTU)0.06% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	−7.17 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)57.41% Aécio Neves (PSDB)42.59%	−14.82 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)53.17% Aécio Neves (PSDB)27.57% Marina Silva (PSB)16.34% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.12% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.05% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.32% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.30% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (PSDC)0.02% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−41.97 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)53.20% José Serra (PSDB)46.80%	−6.39 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)47.93% José Serra (PSDB)37.70% Marina Silva (PV)13.39% Plínio (PSOL)0.75% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.13% Eymael (PSDC)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.03% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−24.44 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)60.12% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)39.88%	−20.24 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)51.78% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)41.59% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.74% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.68% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.12% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.05% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04%	−16.41 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.65% José Serra (PSDB)47.35%	−5.31 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)42.27% José Serra (PSDB)26.60% Garotinho (PSB)20.16% Ciro (PPS)10.65% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.30% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−46.80 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)56.81% Lula (PT)29.54% Ciro Gomes (PPS)9.22% Enéas (PRONA)1.70% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.60% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.50% Sirkis (PV)0.36% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.32% Eymael (PSDC)0.30% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.30% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.18% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.17%	+18.93 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)54.53% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)30.56% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)7.81% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.97% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.04% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.75% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.68% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.66%	+37.39 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)72.49% Lula (PT)27.51%	+44.98 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)52.01% Lula (PT)19.34% Mario Covas (PSDB)6.64% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)4.35% +18 more Afif (PL)4.29% Maluf (PDS)4.12% Brizola (PDT)3.43% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.89% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.74% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.72% Eneas (PRONA)0.53% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.45% Livia Maria (PN)0.41% Marronzinho (PSP)0.40% P.G. (PP)0.38% Zamir (PCN)0.34% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.23% Gabeira (PV)0.21% Celso Brant (PMN)0.20% Pedreira (PPB)0.18% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.16% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+37.79 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc