PB · Northeast

Paraíba in presidential elections

Solid left

Lean index: −32.55pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 2.14%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)67.46% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)32.54%	−34.93 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)61.31% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)33.07% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.94% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.68% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.78% Zema (NOVO)0.08% Samara (UP)0.06% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	−28.72 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)66.62% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)33.38%	−33.25 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)64.21% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)29.62% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.15% Simone Tebet (MDB)2.36% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.36% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.17% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−34.83 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)64.98% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)35.02%	−29.96 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)45.46% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)31.30% Ciro Gomes (PDT)16.75% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)2.37% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.08% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.01% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.78% Marina Silva (REDE)0.58% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.32% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.28% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Eymael (DC)0.02% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	−26.33 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)64.25% Aécio Neves (PSDB)35.75%	−28.51 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)55.60% Aécio Neves (PSDB)23.39% Marina Silva (PSB)18.76% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.80% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.58% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.37% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.36% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−51.26 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)61.55% José Serra (PSDB)38.45%	−23.10 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)53.21% José Serra (PSDB)28.43% Marina Silva (PV)17.64% Plínio (PSOL)0.48% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.05% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−42.90 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)75.01% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)24.99%	−50.02 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)65.31% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)27.87% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.17% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.36% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.15% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.08% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06%	−43.68 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)57.02% José Serra (PSDB)42.98%	−14.04 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)47.77% José Serra (PSDB)29.53% Garotinho (PSB)13.63% Ciro (PPS)8.79% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.24% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−40.94 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)45.26% Lula (PT)33.65% Ciro Gomes (PPS)16.05% Enéas (PRONA)1.33% +8 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.84% Sirkis (PV)0.70% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.63% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.45% Eymael (PSDC)0.36% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.31% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.24% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.18%	−4.64 pts	Left bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)63.05% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)25.75% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.67% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)3.65% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.32% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.69% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.57% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.31%	+45.86 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)54.97% Lula (PT)45.03%	+9.93 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)35.16% Lula (PT)24.14% Brizola (PDT)14.31% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)7.51% +18 more Mario Covas (PSDB)7.29% Maluf (PDS)2.60% Afif (PL)1.97% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.94% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.70% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.67% P.G. (PP)0.67% Zamir (PCN)0.63% Marronzinho (PSP)0.62% Eneas (PRONA)0.54% Livia Maria (PN)0.44% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.42% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.41% Gabeira (PV)0.30% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.24% Pedreira (PPB)0.23% Celso Brant (PMN)0.20% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+4.39 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc