PR · South

Paraná in presidential elections

Solid right

Lean index: +27.31pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 5.53%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 2; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)62.58% Lula (PT)37.42%	+25.15 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)59.91% Lula (PT)31.20% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.11% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.69% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.60% Zema (NOVO)0.26% Samara (UP)0.10% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+31.04 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)62.40% Lula (PT)37.60%	+24.79 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)55.26% Lula (PT)35.99% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.72% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.75% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.58% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.52% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Léo Péricles (UP)0.03% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	+22.33 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)68.43% Fernando Haddad (PT)31.57%	+36.86 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)56.89% Fernando Haddad (PT)19.70% Ciro Gomes (PDT)8.31% Alvaro Dias (PODE)5.25% +9 more Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)3.59% João Amoêdo (NOVO)3.10% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.20% Marina Silva (REDE)0.77% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.65% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.44% Vera (PSTU)0.04% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03% Eymael (DC)0.03%	+41.42 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)61.00% Dilma (PT)39.00%	+22.00 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)49.80% Dilma (PT)32.52% Marina Silva (PSB)14.20% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.31% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.74% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.67% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.55% Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+2.21 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)55.44% Dilma (PT)44.56%	+10.88 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)43.94% Dilma (PT)38.94% Marina Silva (PV)15.91% Plínio (PSOL)0.95% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.07% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.07% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−11.84 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)50.75% Lula (PT)49.25%	+1.50 pts	Right bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)53.01% Lula (PT)37.90% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.41% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)3.42% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.13% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.06% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06%	+6.53 pts	Right bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)59.22% José Serra (PSDB)40.78%	−18.44 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.13% José Serra (PSDB)26.98% Garotinho (PSB)14.26% Ciro (PPS)8.07% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.51% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−46.03 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)59.25% Lula (PT)27.78% Ciro Gomes (PPS)9.53% Enéas (PRONA)1.46% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.32% Sirkis (PV)0.30% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.29% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.26% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.24% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.22% Eymael (PSDC)0.17% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.17%	+23.13 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)60.33% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)22.75% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)6.49% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)4.25% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)2.78% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)2.58% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.46% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.35%	+48.94 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)67.29% Lula (PT)32.71%	+34.58 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)40.64% Brizola (PDT)14.41% Afif (PL)11.56% Lula (PT)8.27% +18 more Mario Covas (PSDB)7.61% Maluf (PDS)7.48% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)3.38% Affonso Camargo (PTB)2.01% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.25% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.70% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.55% Marronzinho (PSP)0.32% Livia Maria (PN)0.29% Eneas (PRONA)0.26% P.G. (PP)0.23% Celso Brant (PMN)0.21% Zamir (PCN)0.21% Gabeira (PV)0.18% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.16% Pedreira (PPB)0.14% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.12% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+36.58 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc