RJ · Southeast

Rio de Janeiro in presidential elections

Likely rightSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 3× in 10 elections.

Lean index: +12.83pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 7.85%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 3; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)53.10% Lula (PT)46.90%	+6.20 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)53.01% Lula (PT)39.41% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.64% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.26% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.13% Zema (NOVO)0.23% Samara (UP)0.15% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.04% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.03% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	+15.40 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)56.53% Lula (PT)43.47%	+13.05 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)51.09% Lula (PT)40.68% Simone Tebet (MDB)3.87% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.19% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.47% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.46% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Léo Péricles (UP)0.07% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.05% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	+11.96 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)67.95% Fernando Haddad (PT)32.05%	+35.91 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)59.79% Ciro Gomes (PDT)15.22% Fernando Haddad (PT)14.69% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)2.47% +9 more Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)2.44% João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.63% Marina Silva (REDE)1.53% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.91% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.68% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.49% Vera (PSTU)0.07% Eymael (DC)0.05% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	+35.55 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)54.92% Aécio Neves (PSDB)45.08%	−9.84 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)35.60% Marina Silva (PSB)31.06% Aécio Neves (PSDB)26.95% Luciana Genro (PSOL)2.72% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.63% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.82% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.78% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.17% Eymael (PSDC)0.14% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.10% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−40.99 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)60.48% José Serra (PSDB)39.52%	−20.96 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)43.76% Marina Silva (PV)31.52% José Serra (PSDB)22.53% Plínio (PSOL)1.65% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.21% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.17% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.08% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.06% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−54.35 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.69% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)30.31%	−39.37 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.18% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)28.86% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)17.13% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)4.47% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.17% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.11% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.08%	−41.56 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)78.97% José Serra (PSDB)21.03%	−57.94 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Garotinho (PSB)42.18% Lula (PT)40.17% José Serra (PSDB)8.82% Ciro (PPS)8.04% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.72% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.06%	−82.36 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Lula (PT)42.32% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)42.28% Ciro Gomes (PPS)10.51% Enéas (PRONA)3.47% +8 more Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.28% Sirkis (PV)0.23% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.21% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.19% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.16% Eymael (PSDC)0.13% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.12% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.10%	−7.16 pts	Left bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)47.18% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)25.69% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)11.67% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)10.68% +4 more Orestes Quercia (PMDB)2.32% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.39% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.60% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.46%	+27.26 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Lula (PT)72.92% Collor (PRN)27.08%	−45.84 pts	Left bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Brizola (PDT)52.09% Collor (PRN)16.07% Lula (PT)12.22% Mario Covas (PSDB)8.70% +18 more Afif (PL)2.59% Roberto Freire (PCB)2.08% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)1.69% Maluf (PDS)1.56% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.66% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.57% Eneas (PRONA)0.55% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.25% Marronzinho (PSP)0.22% Gabeira (PV)0.16% Livia Maria (PN)0.13% Celso Brant (PMN)0.11% Zamir (PCN)0.10% Pedreira (PPB)0.07% P.G. (PP)0.07% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.06% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.05% Correa (PMB)0.00%	−51.17 pts	Left bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

1994(Round 1)·Left bloc→Right bloc
1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc