RN · Northeast

Rio Grande do Norte in presidential elections

Solid left

Lean index: −30.75pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 1.73%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 1; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)65.72% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)34.28%	−31.44 pts	Left bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)59.75% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)34.77% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.77% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.70% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.79% Zema (NOVO)0.07% Samara (UP)0.06% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−25.26 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)65.10% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)34.90%	−30.19 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)62.98% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)31.02% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.57% Simone Tebet (MDB)1.92% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.22% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.15% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.04% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.03% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	−33.27 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)63.41% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)36.59%	−26.83 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)41.19% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)30.21% Ciro Gomes (PDT)22.31% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)2.25% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.15% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.87% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.64% Marina Silva (REDE)0.60% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.39% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.29% Vera (PSTU)0.06% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03% Eymael (DC)0.03%	−29.13 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)69.94% Aécio Neves (PSDB)30.06%	−39.88 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)60.04% Aécio Neves (PSDB)19.84% Marina Silva (PSB)17.20% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.21% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.80% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.32% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.32% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.17% Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−57.98 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)59.54% José Serra (PSDB)40.46%	−19.09 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)51.76% José Serra (PSDB)28.14% Marina Silva (PV)19.16% Plínio (PSOL)0.64% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.10% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.09% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.05% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−43.44 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.73% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)30.27%	−39.45 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)60.17% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)31.57% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.13% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.76% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.24% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.07% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06%	−36.11 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)58.64% José Serra (PSDB)41.36%	−17.27 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)43.68% José Serra (PSDB)22.30% Garotinho (PSB)17.27% Ciro (PPS)16.44% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.28% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−55.41 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)50.72% Lula (PT)25.84% Ciro Gomes (PPS)18.66% Enéas (PRONA)1.39% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.77% Sirkis (PV)0.56% Eymael (PSDC)0.48% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.44% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.37% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.30% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.26% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.21%	+6.72 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)64.29% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)24.08% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)4.39% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.98% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.24% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.85% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.82% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.35%	+49.36 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)52.59% Lula (PT)47.41%	+5.18 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)33.37% Lula (PT)24.40% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)14.20% Brizola (PDT)7.99% +18 more Mario Covas (PSDB)5.80% Maluf (PDS)5.36% Afif (PL)2.13% Roberto Freire (PCB)1.09% Eneas (PRONA)0.68% Zamir (PCN)0.64% P.G. (PP)0.63% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.61% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.50% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.48% Marronzinho (PSP)0.46% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.44% Livia Maria (PN)0.38% Gabeira (PV)0.24% Pedreira (PPB)0.22% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.20% Celso Brant (PMN)0.18% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+19.71 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc