RO · North

Rondônia in presidential elections

Solid rightSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 3× in 10 elections.

Lean index: +38.17pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 0.78%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 3; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)69.61% Lula (PT)30.39%	+39.22 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)67.45% Lula (PT)25.89% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.61% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.98% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.75% Zema (NOVO)0.14% Samara (UP)0.09% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+42.73 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)70.66% Lula (PT)29.34%	+41.33 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)64.36% Lula (PT)28.98% Simone Tebet (MDB)3.46% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.14% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.64% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.27% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+37.63 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)72.18% Fernando Haddad (PT)27.82%	+44.36 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)62.24% Fernando Haddad (PT)20.36% Ciro Gomes (PDT)6.03% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)4.28% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.89% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.48% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.13% Alvaro Dias (PODE)1.01% Marina Silva (REDE)0.85% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.62% Vera (PSTU)0.05% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+44.14 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)54.86% Dilma (PT)45.14%	+9.73 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.91% Dilma (PT)41.69% Marina Silva (PSB)10.42% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.51% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.56% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.46% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.29% Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−6.09 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)52.63% Dilma (PT)47.37%	+5.27 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)45.39% Dilma (PT)40.74% Marina Silva (PV)12.70% Plínio (PSOL)0.84% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.15% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.06% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.06% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−8.79 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.33% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)44.67%	−10.66 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)47.04% Lula (PT)45.06% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.57% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.01% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.15% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.08%	−5.28 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.56% José Serra (PSDB)44.44%	−11.13 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)45.04% Garotinho (PSB)24.50% José Serra (PSDB)20.35% Ciro (PPS)9.64% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.44% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03%	−59.30 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)66.40% Lula (PT)21.32% Ciro Gomes (PPS)8.08% Enéas (PRONA)1.48% +8 more Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.90% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.37% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.33% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.30% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.25% Eymael (PSDC)0.22% Sirkis (PV)0.22% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.12%	+39.00 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)63.36% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)21.94% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)6.30% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.17% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.99% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.31% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.54% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.38%	+52.14 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)63.25% Lula (PT)36.75%	+26.50 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)42.82% Lula (PT)19.53% Brizola (PDT)10.25% Afif (PL)6.75% +18 more Maluf (PDS)6.45% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)5.01% Mario Covas (PSDB)3.55% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.83% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.77% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.59% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.57% Eneas (PRONA)0.52% Marronzinho (PSP)0.42% Zamir (PCN)0.35% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.32% Livia Maria (PN)0.30% P.G. (PP)0.26% Celso Brant (PMN)0.20% Gabeira (PV)0.20% Pedreira (PPB)0.15% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.14% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+30.53 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2010(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc