RS · South

Rio Grande do Sul in presidential elections

Solid rightSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 5× in 10 elections.

Lean index: +16.32pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 5.40%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 5; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)57.84% Lula (PT)42.16%	+15.67 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)55.64% Lula (PT)35.73% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.04% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)2.61% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.47% Zema (NOVO)0.30% Samara (UP)0.10% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.03% Clariana Barao (DC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	+22.13 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)56.35% Lula (PT)43.65%	+12.70 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)48.89% Lula (PT)42.28% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.79% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.88% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.61% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.38% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.07% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Léo Péricles (UP)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+9.50 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)63.24% Fernando Haddad (PT)36.76%	+26.48 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)52.63% Fernando Haddad (PT)22.81% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.37% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)5.50% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)2.92% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.96% Marina Silva (REDE)0.78% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.70% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.65% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.56% Vera (PSTU)0.05% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.04% Eymael (DC)0.02%	+28.59 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)53.54% Dilma (PT)46.46%	+7.08 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)43.19% Aécio Neves (PSDB)41.43% Marina Silva (PSB)11.50% Luciana Genro (PSOL)2.25% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.69% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.52% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.28% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.06% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−15.47 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)50.94% Dilma (PT)49.06%	+1.88 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)46.95% José Serra (PSDB)40.59% Marina Silva (PV)11.33% Plínio (PSOL)0.88% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.08% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−18.53 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)55.35% Lula (PT)44.65%	+10.71 pts	Right bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)55.76% Lula (PT)33.07% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)7.09% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)3.86% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.12% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04%	+11.97 pts	Right bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.84% José Serra (PSDB)44.16%	−11.67 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)45.18% José Serra (PSDB)32.41% Garotinho (PSB)12.02% Ciro (PPS)9.97% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.37% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.05%	−35.19 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.05% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)40.60% Ciro Gomes (PPS)5.54% Enéas (PRONA)3.22% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.31% Eymael (PSDC)0.26% Sirkis (PV)0.24% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.22% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.19% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.19% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.10% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.09%	−11.08 pts	Left bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)33.48% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)29.57% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)15.10% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)9.36% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)8.19% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.73% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.33% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.25%	+2.84 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Lula (PT)68.72% Collor (PRN)31.28%	−37.43 pts	Left bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Brizola (PDT)62.66% Collor (PRN)9.23% Lula (PT)6.72% Maluf (PDS)5.94% +18 more Mario Covas (PSDB)4.79% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)3.56% Afif (PL)3.42% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.87% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.66% Eneas (PRONA)0.44% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.37% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.30% Marronzinho (PSP)0.20% Gabeira (PV)0.18% Livia Maria (PN)0.12% Zamir (PCN)0.10% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.10% Celso Brant (PMN)0.10% Pedreira (PPB)0.09% P.G. (PP)0.09% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.05% Correa (PMB)0.00%	−51.04 pts	Left bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

1994(Round 1)·Left bloc→Right bloc
1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2010(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2014(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc