SP · Southeast

São Paulo in presidential elections

Solid right

Lean index: +16.51pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 21.17%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 2; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: No; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)53.85% Lula (PT)46.15%	+7.69 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)51.93% Lula (PT)38.20% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.59% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.23% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.33% Zema (NOVO)0.38% Samara (UP)0.17% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.06% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	+15.87 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)55.24% Lula (PT)44.76%	+10.48 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)47.71% Lula (PT)40.89% Simone Tebet (MDB)6.34% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.50% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.72% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.60% Léo Péricles (UP)0.08% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.06% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	+10.88 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)67.97% Fernando Haddad (PT)32.03%	+35.94 pts	Right bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)53.00% Fernando Haddad (PT)16.42% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.35% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)9.52% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)4.55% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.18% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.15% Marina Silva (REDE)1.12% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.80% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.76% Eymael (DC)0.06% Vera (PSTU)0.05% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	+40.45 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)64.32% Dilma (PT)35.68%	+28.65 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.24% Dilma (PT)25.81% Marina Silva (PSB)25.09% Luciana Genro (PSOL)2.41% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)1.03% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.62% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.59% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.05% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−8.98 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)54.05% Dilma (PT)45.95%	+8.11 pts	Right bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)40.66% Dilma (PT)37.31% Marina Silva (PV)20.77% Plínio (PSOL)1.02% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.06% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−18.45 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)52.26% Lula (PT)47.74%	+4.52 pts	Right bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)54.20% Lula (PT)36.77% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)7.08% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.75% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.09% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05%	+8.80 pts	Right bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.39% José Serra (PSDB)44.61%	−10.77 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)46.11% José Serra (PSDB)28.52% Garotinho (PSB)14.09% Ciro (PPS)10.57% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.66% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−42.95 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)59.89% Lula (PT)28.84% Ciro Gomes (PPS)7.43% Enéas (PRONA)2.40% +8 more Eymael (PSDC)0.25% Sirkis (PV)0.25% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.22% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.18% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.17% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.16% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.11% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.11%	+25.85 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)55.74% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)27.01% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)8.87% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)5.75% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.59% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.44% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.33% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.28%	+45.11 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)57.90% Lula (PT)42.10%	+15.81 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)24.40% Maluf (PDS)23.50% Mario Covas (PSDB)22.71% Lula (PT)17.45% +18 more Afif (PL)4.83% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)1.98% Brizola (PDT)1.51% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.84% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)0.47% Eneas (PRONA)0.46% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.41% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.35% Marronzinho (PSP)0.22% Livia Maria (PN)0.16% Celso Brant (PMN)0.14% Gabeira (PV)0.13% Zamir (PCN)0.11% P.G. (PP)0.10% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.08% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.07% Pedreira (PPB)0.07% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+14.00 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc