TO · North

Tocantins in presidential elections

Toss-upSwing

Swing state because it changed bloc 3× in 10 elections · lean index below 8 pts (Toss-up).

Lean index: −1.78pts; Weighted average of the gap between the state margin and the national margin over the last four runoffs. Positive = leans right.
Share of the electorate: 0.73%; State valid votes over the national total, latest round available.
Bloc switches: 3; Between consecutive elections of the 1989–2026 series (10 elections; round 2 where there was one).
Swing state: Yes; Changed bloc ≥3 times in 10 elections, or lean index < 8 pts.

Right − left margin by election

Decisive round of each year (runoff where there was one). Dashed line: Brazil. Red dots: left ahead; blue dots: right ahead.

All elections

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)51.37% Lula (PT)48.63%	+2.74 pts	Right bloc
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)50.44% Lula (PT)43.42% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.41% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.17% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.40% Zema (NOVO)0.06% Samara (UP)0.04% Clariana Barao (DC)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+8.19 pts	Right bloc
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)51.36% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)48.64%	−2.71 pts	Left bloc
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.40% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)44.00% Simone Tebet (MDB)2.93% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.11% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.32% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.15% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.05% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.02% Léo Péricles (UP)0.01% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01% Vera (PSTU)0.01%	−5.09 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)51.02% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)48.98%	−2.05 pts	Left bloc
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)44.64% Fernando Haddad (PT)41.12% Ciro Gomes (PDT)7.17% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)2.86% +9 more Marina Silva (REDE)0.96% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.94% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.83% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.70% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.37% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.33% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (DC)0.03% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+0.66 pts	Right bloc
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)59.47% Aécio Neves (PSDB)40.53%	−18.95 pts	Left bloc
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)50.21% Aécio Neves (PSDB)27.69% Marina Silva (PSB)20.54% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.65% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.39% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.23% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.19% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (PSDC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−42.82 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)58.88% José Serra (PSDB)41.12%	−17.75 pts	Left bloc
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)50.98% José Serra (PSDB)27.99% Marina Silva (PV)20.56% Plínio (PSOL)0.28% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.04% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−43.79 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)70.27% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)29.73%	−40.54 pts	Left bloc
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)58.62% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)37.31% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)2.39% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.47% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.14% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.03%	−24.96 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)54.03% José Serra (PSDB)45.97%	−8.07 pts	Left bloc
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)43.10% José Serra (PSDB)33.97% Garotinho (PSB)13.82% Ciro (PPS)8.91% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.17% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−32.06 pts	Left bloc
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)66.68% Lula (PT)16.73% Ciro Gomes (PPS)11.95% Enéas (PRONA)1.79% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.61% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.49% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.42% Sirkis (PV)0.41% Eymael (PSDC)0.30% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.21% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.20% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.20%	+38.77 pts	Right bloc
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)68.03% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)15.94% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)8.97% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)3.64% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)1.12% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.10% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.88% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.33%	+65.89 pts	Right bloc
1989 12/17/1989	Round 2	Collor (PRN)78.39% Lula (PT)21.61%	+56.79 pts	Right bloc
1989 11/15/1989	Round 1	Collor (PRN)57.08% Ulysses Guimaraes (PMDB)11.32% Lula (PT)9.65% Maluf (PDS)4.59% +18 more Brizola (PDT)4.02% Afif (PL)3.40% Mario Covas (PSDB)3.37% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.72% P.G. (PP)0.71% Aureliano Chaves (PFL)0.54% Livia Maria (PN)0.54% Affonso Camargo (PTB)0.51% Eneas (PRONA)0.49% Zamir (PCN)0.41% Roberto Freire (PCB)0.38% Eudes Mattar (PLP)0.31% Marronzinho (PSP)0.30% Gabeira (PV)0.19% Celso Brant (PMN)0.17% Manoel Horta (PDCdoB)0.17% Pedreira (PPB)0.14% Correa (PMB)0.00%	+63.86 pts	Right bloc

Bloc changes in the series (10 elections)

Each item is an election in which the bloc ahead in the state differed from the previous election; the round used is in parentheses.

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2026(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc