MG · Varginha immediate region

Monsenhor Paulo: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Monsenhor Paulo with 50.77% of valid votes against 49.23% for Lula: a margin of 1.53 points, 5.10 points right of Brazil.

Lean rightSwing

Lean versus Brazil: +4.97pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 6,959; 427th largest electorate in Minas Gerais
Side changes: 2; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 4 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of Minas Gerais

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Monsenhor Paulo+1.53 pts
Minas Gerais−0.87 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)50.77% Lula (PT)49.23%	+1.53 pts	Right bloc	79.09%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)51.81% Lula (PT)42.61% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.38% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.33% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.29% Zema (NOVO)0.46% Clariana Barao (DC)0.06% Samara (UP)0.06% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.00% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.00% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.00%	+9.89 pts	Right bloc	76.94%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)50.76% Lula (PT)49.24%	+1.51 pts	Right bloc	80.94%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)48.51% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)44.21% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.30% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.61% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.83% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.48% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.00% Vera (PSTU)0.00% Léo Péricles (UP)0.00%	−0.31 pts	Left bloc	78.45%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)59.80% Fernando Haddad (PT)40.20%	+19.60 pts	Right bloc	79.08%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)48.20% Fernando Haddad (PT)29.51% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)8.00% Ciro Gomes (PDT)6.40% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)5.57% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.83% Marina Silva (REDE)0.44% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.33% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.29% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.29% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.06% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Eymael (DC)0.04%	+26.52 pts	Right bloc	79.23%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)51.29% Aécio Neves (PSDB)48.71%	−2.57 pts	Left bloc	83.79%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)46.81% Dilma (PT)44.67% Marina Silva (PSB)5.96% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.96% +7 more Eymael (PSDC)0.65% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.33% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.26% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.24% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.06% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.04% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.02%	−4.09 pts	Left bloc	83.01%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)50.18% José Serra (PSDB)49.82%	−0.37 pts	Left bloc	83.38%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)44.54% Dilma (PT)44.47% Marina Silva (PV)9.82% Plínio (PSOL)0.49% +4 more Eymael (PSDC)0.44% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.13% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.07% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.04%	−9.77 pts	Left bloc	83.86%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.29% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)47.71%	−4.58 pts	Left bloc	84.49%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)58.19% Lula (PT)37.21% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)2.76% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.71% +3 more Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05% Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.05% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.02%	+16.62 pts	Right bloc	84.53%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.52% José Serra (PSDB)30.48%	−39.03 pts	Left bloc	87.68%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)56.90% José Serra (PSDB)25.89% Garotinho (PSB)9.11% Ciro (PPS)7.81% +1 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.29%	−48.21 pts	Left bloc	89.24%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)71.78% Lula (PT)16.16% Ciro Gomes (PPS)5.73% Enéas (PRONA)2.45% +8 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.74% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.68% Sirkis (PV)0.54% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.46% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.46% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.37% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.31% Eymael (PSDC)0.31%	+51.37 pts	Right bloc	82.87%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)77.09% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)10.73% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)5.73% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)4.15% +4 more Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.94% Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.63% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.41% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.31%	+76.64 pts	Right bloc	83.72%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2010(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2014(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(between rounds)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the Varginha immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.