MG · Caxambu - Baependi immediate region

Carvalhos: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Carvalhos with 51.04% of valid votes against 48.96% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 2.09 points, 1.48 points right of Brazil.

Toss-upSwing

Lean versus Brazil: +1.26pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 3,995; 699th largest electorate in Minas Gerais
Side changes: 5; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 3 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: No; Has voted for the national winner since 2018.

On the map of Minas Gerais

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Carvalhos−2.09 pts
Minas Gerais−0.87 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)51.04% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)48.96%	−2.09 pts	Left bloc	83.38%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)48.66% Lula (PT)45.07% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.82% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.85% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.28% Zema (NOVO)0.27% Clariana Barao (DC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.00% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.00% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.00% Samara (UP)0.00%	+4.16 pts	Right bloc	81.72%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.99% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)47.01%	−5.98 pts	Left bloc	82.65%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.36% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)40.36% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.14% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.29% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)1.06% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.53% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.20% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Léo Péricles (UP)0.03% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.00% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.00%	−5.43 pts	Left bloc	80.76%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)57.36% Fernando Haddad (PT)42.64%	+14.73 pts	Right bloc	75.63%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)46.83% Fernando Haddad (PT)24.73% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)12.97% Ciro Gomes (PDT)9.25% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)4.06% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.83% Marina Silva (REDE)0.46% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.38% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.27% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.15% Eymael (DC)0.04% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.00%	+30.30 pts	Right bloc	77.52%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)53.53% Dilma (PT)46.47%	+7.05 pts	Right bloc	77.16%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)47.18% Dilma (PT)44.97% Marina Silva (PSB)6.00% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.55% +5 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.47% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.47% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.15% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.15% Eymael (PSDC)0.07%	−4.25 pts	Left bloc	79.44%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)51.92% José Serra (PSDB)48.08%	−3.85 pts	Left bloc	78.44%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)46.14% Dilma (PT)45.57% Marina Silva (PV)7.21% Plínio (PSOL)0.75% +4 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.14% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.11% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Eymael (PSDC)0.04%	−7.43 pts	Left bloc	81.57%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)51.21% Lula (PT)48.79%	+2.43 pts	Right bloc	82.68%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)59.37% Lula (PT)35.47% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)2.73% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.21% +2 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.15% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.07%	+19.19 pts	Right bloc	84.89%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)50.09% José Serra (PSDB)49.91%	−0.17 pts	Left bloc	76.24%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)46.60% Lula (PT)39.55% Garotinho (PSB)8.26% Ciro (PPS)5.12% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.40% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.07%	−6.80 pts	Left bloc	80.45%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)67.74% Lula (PT)16.07% Ciro Gomes (PPS)9.17% Enéas (PRONA)2.60% +8 more Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)1.18% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.97% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.69% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.45% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.37% Eymael (PSDC)0.37% Sirkis (PV)0.28% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.12%	+43.26 pts	Right bloc	80.17%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)73.99% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)13.14% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)6.76% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)4.09% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.97% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.55% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.37% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.14%	+85.39 pts	Right bloc	84.96%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2002(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2010(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2010(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2014(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2026(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the Caxambu - Baependi immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.