RS · Novo Hamburgo - São Leopoldo immediate region

Estância Velha: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Estância Velha with 71.12% of valid votes against 28.88% for Lula: a margin of 42.23 points, 45.80 points right of Brazil.

Solid rightSwing

Lean versus Brazil: +43.08pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 37,235; 47th largest electorate in Rio Grande do Sul
Side changes: 4; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of Rio Grande do Sul

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Estância Velha+42.23 pts
Rio Grande do Sul+15.67 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)71.12% Lula (PT)28.88%	+42.23 pts	Right bloc	83.39%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)67.66% Lula (PT)23.55% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.09% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.04% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.12% Zema (NOVO)0.33% Samara (UP)0.08% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.04% Clariana Barao (DC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01%	+46.50 pts	Right bloc	81.55%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)71.29% Lula (PT)28.71%	+42.58 pts	Right bloc	82.86%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)64.36% Lula (PT)27.82% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.00% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.50% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.77% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.35% Léo Péricles (UP)0.06% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02% Vera (PSTU)0.01%	+39.14 pts	Right bloc	81.85%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)77.75% Fernando Haddad (PT)22.25%	+55.50 pts	Right bloc	82.90%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)66.28% Fernando Haddad (PT)13.35% Ciro Gomes (PDT)7.68% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)4.24% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)4.15% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)2.01% Marina Silva (REDE)0.64% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.62% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.55% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.42% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Eymael (DC)0.00%	+55.70 pts	Right bloc	83.59%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)60.36% Dilma (PT)39.64%	+20.71 pts	Right bloc	85.21%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)46.66% Dilma (PT)38.36% Marina Silva (PSB)11.91% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.47% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.68% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.54% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.21% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Eymael (PSDC)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−5.11 pts	Left bloc	86.34%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)50.90% José Serra (PSDB)49.10%	−1.81 pts	Left bloc	85.54%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)50.16% José Serra (PSDB)39.06% Marina Silva (PV)10.05% Plínio (PSOL)0.55% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.06% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−21.71 pts	Left bloc	88.76%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)55.64% Lula (PT)44.36%	+11.27 pts	Right bloc	88.91%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)59.02% Lula (PT)33.68% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)5.07% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)2.04% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.09% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.03%	+18.42 pts	Right bloc	90.14%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)57.82% José Serra (PSDB)42.18%	−15.64 pts	Left bloc	90.10%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.11% José Serra (PSDB)33.68% Garotinho (PSB)9.48% Ciro (PPS)7.43% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.26% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03%	−32.63 pts	Left bloc	91.15%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Lula (PT)52.71% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)36.24% Ciro Gomes (PPS)6.13% Enéas (PRONA)3.15% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.36% Eymael (PSDC)0.31% Sirkis (PV)0.24% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.23% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.19% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.18% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.16% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.10%	−19.61 pts	Left bloc	88.14%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)34.85% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)29.71% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)12.70% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)11.72% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)7.95% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)2.60% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.24% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.23%	+6.87 pts	Right bloc	90.10%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2010(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2014(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the Novo Hamburgo - São Leopoldo immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.