SP · Presidente Prudente immediate region

Caiabu: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Caiabu with 54.51% of valid votes against 45.49% for Lula: a margin of 9.02 points, 12.59 points right of Brazil.

Lean rightSwing

Lean versus Brazil: +4.76pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 3,330; 547th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 2; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 1 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Caiabu+9.02 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)54.51% Lula (PT)45.49%	+9.02 pts	Right bloc	82.79%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)54.26% Lula (PT)40.15% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.72% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)1.73% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)0.99% Zema (NOVO)0.08% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Samara (UP)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.00% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.00% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.00%	+16.15 pts	Right bloc	80.27%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)50.54% Lula (PT)49.46%	+1.07 pts	Right bloc	84.50%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)46.78% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)45.89% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.20% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.31% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.41% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.26% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.11% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.00% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.00% Léo Péricles (UP)0.00%	+3.81 pts	Right bloc	83.20%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)54.15% Fernando Haddad (PT)45.85%	+8.30 pts	Right bloc	84.78%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)41.60% Fernando Haddad (PT)31.82% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)15.53% Ciro Gomes (PDT)6.79% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.59% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.07% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.60% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.36% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.36% Marina Silva (REDE)0.16% Eymael (DC)0.12% Vera (PSTU)0.00% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.00%	+21.73 pts	Right bloc	85.12%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)55.40% Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.60%	−10.80 pts	Left bloc	80.15%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)45.37% Aécio Neves (PSDB)42.65% Marina Silva (PSB)10.47% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.04% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.18% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.14% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.11% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.00% Eymael (PSDC)0.00% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00%	−12.41 pts	Left bloc	80.78%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)59.96% José Serra (PSDB)40.04%	−19.91 pts	Left bloc	81.44%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)51.13% José Serra (PSDB)34.95% Marina Silva (PV)13.64% Plínio (PSOL)0.22% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.04% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04%	−30.04 pts	Left bloc	82.71%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)61.43% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)38.57%	−22.86 pts	Left bloc	83.04%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.23% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)45.63% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)3.11% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)0.84% +1 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.19%	−8.37 pts	Left bloc	83.75%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)53.17% José Serra (PSDB)46.83%	−6.34 pts	Left bloc	85.96%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)46.47% José Serra (PSDB)29.71% Ciro (PPS)12.00% Garotinho (PSB)11.23% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.54% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.05%	−40.58 pts	Left bloc	86.29%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)64.34% Lula (PT)22.28% Ciro Gomes (PPS)6.98% Enéas (PRONA)3.07% +8 more Sirkis (PV)0.62% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.57% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.52% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.52% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.36% Eymael (PSDC)0.21% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.16%	+37.32 pts	Right bloc	79.68%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)53.05% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)20.17% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)18.54% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)5.72% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.47% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.47% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.32% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.26%	+62.40 pts	Right bloc	81.03%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(between rounds)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the Presidente Prudente immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.