SP · Mogi Guaçu immediate region

Estiva Gerbi: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Estiva Gerbi with 67.21% of valid votes against 32.79% for Lula: a margin of 34.42 points, 37.99 points right of Brazil.

Solid right

Lean versus Brazil: +37.11pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 9,490; 332th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 2; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Estiva Gerbi+34.42 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)67.21% Lula (PT)32.79%	+34.42 pts	Right bloc	82.15%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)65.96% Lula (PT)27.62% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.55% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.89% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.62% Zema (NOVO)0.18% Samara (UP)0.11% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.04% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01% Clariana Barao (DC)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.00%	+39.33 pts	Right bloc	80.27%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)65.95% Lula (PT)34.05%	+31.91 pts	Right bloc	80.78%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)59.24% Lula (PT)32.93% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.92% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.92% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.58% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.32% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.07% Vera (PSTU)0.01% Léo Péricles (UP)0.01% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.00% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.00%	+30.24 pts	Right bloc	80.64%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)76.97% Fernando Haddad (PT)23.03%	+53.94 pts	Right bloc	79.86%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)63.87% Fernando Haddad (PT)13.34% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)9.92% Ciro Gomes (PDT)5.94% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)2.86% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.69% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.09% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.45% Marina Silva (REDE)0.42% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.34% Vera (PSTU)0.05% Eymael (DC)0.05% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.00%	+59.85 pts	Right bloc	79.96%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)63.70% Dilma (PT)36.30%	+27.40 pts	Right bloc	82.12%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)45.75% Dilma (PT)27.70% Marina Silva (PSB)24.27% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.98% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.62% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.36% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.23% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.03% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Eymael (PSDC)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−7.29 pts	Left bloc	83.90%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)50.07% José Serra (PSDB)49.93%	−0.13 pts	Left bloc	82.97%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)41.76% José Serra (PSDB)37.61% Marina Silva (PV)19.30% Plínio (PSOL)1.22% +4 more Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.02% Eymael (PSDC)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−24.65 pts	Left bloc	85.15%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)59.74% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)40.26%	−19.47 pts	Left bloc	85.69%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)47.28% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)47.04% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.22% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.33% +3 more Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.07% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.03% Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.03%	−5.64 pts	Left bloc	86.17%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.82% José Serra (PSDB)30.18%	−39.65 pts	Left bloc	86.56%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)57.54% José Serra (PSDB)18.89% Garotinho (PSB)13.95% Ciro (PPS)9.33% +1 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.28%	−62.22 pts	Left bloc	86.85%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)55.38% Lula (PT)30.58% Ciro Gomes (PPS)8.31% Enéas (PRONA)2.73% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.63% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.51% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.48% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.36% Eymael (PSDC)0.36% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.24% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.21% Sirkis (PV)0.21%	+18.86 pts	Right bloc	91.46%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)40.76% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)25.51% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)21.76% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)10.04% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.96% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.61% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.18% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.18%	+48.62 pts	Right bloc	96.07%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2014(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the Mogi Guaçu immediate region

Find another municipality

Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.