SP · Presidente Epitácio-Presidente Venceslau immediate region

Caiuá: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Caiuá with 53.77% of valid votes against 46.23% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 7.55 points, 3.98 points left of Brazil.

Likely left

Lean versus Brazil: −9.27pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 3,755; 526th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 1; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: No; Has voted for the national winner since 2022.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Caiuá−7.55 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)53.77% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)46.23%	−7.55 pts	Left bloc	77.58%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)47.79% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)47.11% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)2.55% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.14% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.14% Zema (NOVO)0.11% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.08% Clariana Barao (DC)0.04% Samara (UP)0.04% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.00% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.00% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00%	−0.76 pts	Left bloc	72.73%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)56.46% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)43.54%	−12.92 pts	Left bloc	76.26%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)55.58% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)38.66% Simone Tebet (MDB)3.48% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.72% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.39% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.07% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.07% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.00% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.00% Léo Péricles (UP)0.00%	−14.61 pts	Left bloc	74.74%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Fernando Haddad (PT)52.44% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)47.56%	−4.89 pts	Left bloc	70.77%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)39.54% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)37.69% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)11.37% Ciro Gomes (PDT)7.28% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.58% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.66% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.62% João Amoêdo (NOVO)0.62% Marina Silva (REDE)0.39% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.27% Vera (PSTU)0.00% Eymael (DC)0.00% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.00%	+5.05 pts	Right bloc	71.41%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)58.23% Aécio Neves (PSDB)41.77%	−16.45 pts	Left bloc	71.69%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)49.77% Aécio Neves (PSDB)31.73% Marina Silva (PSB)16.43% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.06% +7 more Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.56% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.28% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.11% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.07% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.00% Eymael (PSDC)0.00% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.00%	−34.22 pts	Left bloc	73.73%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)63.82% José Serra (PSDB)36.18%	−27.64 pts	Left bloc	74.99%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)54.33% José Serra (PSDB)35.39% Marina Silva (PV)10.11% Plínio (PSOL)0.18%	−29.22 pts	Left bloc	76.41%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)64.05% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)35.95%	−28.11 pts	Left bloc	79.29%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)53.55% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)41.01% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.41% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)0.85% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.11% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.04%	−17.63 pts	Left bloc	79.98%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)52.91% Lula (PT)47.09%	+5.82 pts	Right bloc	86.11%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)45.29% Lula (PT)41.15% Garotinho (PSB)8.34% Ciro (PPS)4.89% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.28% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.05%	−9.41 pts	Left bloc	87.37%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)67.62% Lula (PT)17.85% Ciro Gomes (PPS)8.05% Enéas (PRONA)2.25% +8 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.73% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.73% Eymael (PSDC)0.62% Sirkis (PV)0.62% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.62% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.34% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.34% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.23%	+42.79 pts	Right bloc	75.06%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)62.91% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)17.94% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)11.87% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)4.27% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.20% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.77% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.71% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.33%	+62.58 pts	Right bloc	80.85%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2006(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the Presidente Epitácio-Presidente Venceslau immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.