SP · Caraguatatuba - Ubatuba - São Sebastião immediate region

Caraguatatuba: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Caraguatatuba with 57.23% of valid votes against 42.77% for Lula: a margin of 14.46 points, 18.03 points right of Brazil.

Solid right

Lean versus Brazil: +23.35pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 106,378; 57th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 2; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Caraguatatuba+14.46 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)57.23% Lula (PT)42.77%	+14.46 pts	Right bloc	78.84%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)55.89% Lula (PT)35.06% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.30% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.20% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.90% Zema (NOVO)0.26% Samara (UP)0.18% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.07% Clariana Barao (DC)0.05% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02%	+22.69 pts	Right bloc	77.31%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)59.40% Lula (PT)40.60%	+18.80 pts	Right bloc	76.16%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)53.23% Lula (PT)37.77% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.90% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.84% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.51% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.49% Léo Péricles (UP)0.08% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.07% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.06% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.01%	+18.41 pts	Right bloc	76.61%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)71.17% Fernando Haddad (PT)28.83%	+42.33 pts	Right bloc	74.90%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)55.16% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)15.12% Fernando Haddad (PT)13.95% Ciro Gomes (PDT)8.70% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)2.96% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.10% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.07% Marina Silva (REDE)0.84% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.51% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.44% Eymael (DC)0.07% Vera (PSTU)0.05% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.04%	+51.81 pts	Right bloc	75.57%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)66.07% Dilma (PT)33.93%	+32.14 pts	Right bloc	76.29%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)42.65% Marina Silva (PSB)30.32% Dilma (PT)22.97% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.76% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.92% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.84% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.41% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.06% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−11.96 pts	Left bloc	77.11%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)58.28% Dilma (PT)41.72%	+16.57 pts	Right bloc	76.90%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)44.01% Dilma (PT)33.76% Marina Silva (PV)21.38% Plínio (PSOL)0.66% +5 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−11.81 pts	Left bloc	78.67%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)56.68% Lula (PT)43.32%	+13.36 pts	Right bloc	78.28%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)61.70% Lula (PT)29.93% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)6.76% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.37% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.11% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.06%	+23.88 pts	Right bloc	79.61%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)51.78% José Serra (PSDB)48.22%	−3.57 pts	Left bloc	79.15%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)40.16% José Serra (PSDB)31.40% Garotinho (PSB)18.37% Ciro (PPS)9.48% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.57% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−37.21 pts	Left bloc	79.71%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)66.65% Lula (PT)19.96% Ciro Gomes (PPS)8.36% Enéas (PRONA)2.41% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.48% Eymael (PSDC)0.44% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Sirkis (PV)0.36% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.33% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.28% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.21% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.17%	+40.48 pts	Right bloc	79.92%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)63.94% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)18.37% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)10.18% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.59% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.53% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.57% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.54% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.27%	+62.12 pts	Right bloc	84.81%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the Caraguatatuba - Ubatuba - São Sebastião immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.