SP · Caraguatatuba - Ubatuba - São Sebastião immediate region

Ilhabela: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Ilhabela with 54.69% of valid votes against 45.31% for Lula: a margin of 9.37 points, 12.94 points right of Brazil.

Solid right

Lean versus Brazil: +19.16pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 31,086; 153th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 0; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Ilhabela+9.37 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)54.69% Lula (PT)45.31%	+9.37 pts	Right bloc	78.57%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)53.51% Lula (PT)37.39% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.49% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.38% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.62% Zema (NOVO)0.28% Samara (UP)0.15% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.06% Clariana Barao (DC)0.06% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.01%	+17.75 pts	Right bloc	75.64%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)55.72% Lula (PT)44.28%	+11.44 pts	Right bloc	77.39%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)50.31% Lula (PT)39.77% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.37% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.38% +7 more Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.51% Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.50% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.05% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.04% Léo Péricles (UP)0.03% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	+13.50 pts	Right bloc	76.66%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)68.20% Fernando Haddad (PT)31.80%	+36.41 pts	Right bloc	73.96%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)53.17% Fernando Haddad (PT)14.29% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)12.58% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.01% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)3.98% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.58% Marina Silva (REDE)1.22% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.80% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.74% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.55% Eymael (DC)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.04% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+45.27 pts	Right bloc	73.61%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)72.26% Dilma (PT)27.74%	+44.51 pts	Right bloc	76.40%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.52% Marina Silva (PSB)33.70% Dilma (PT)17.91% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.36% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.31% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.75% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.37% Eymael (PSDC)0.05% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.01% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−7.49 pts	Left bloc	76.13%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)67.46% Dilma (PT)32.54%	+34.92 pts	Right bloc	76.98%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)52.93% Dilma (PT)24.35% Marina Silva (PV)22.06% Plínio (PSOL)0.49% +5 more Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.12% Eymael (PSDC)0.02% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.01% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.01% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	+6.14 pts	Right bloc	78.33%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)64.34% Lula (PT)35.66%	+28.68 pts	Right bloc	79.61%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)68.77% Lula (PT)24.81% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)4.84% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.33% +3 more José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.15% Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04%	+38.05 pts	Right bloc	81.12%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)60.56% Lula (PT)39.44%	+21.12 pts	Right bloc	79.40%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	José Serra (PSDB)41.40% Lula (PT)32.05% Garotinho (PSB)18.50% Ciro (PPS)7.68% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.35% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−17.20 pts	Left bloc	80.03%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)74.64% Lula (PT)13.77% Ciro Gomes (PPS)7.11% Enéas (PRONA)1.70% +8 more João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.61% Eymael (PSDC)0.53% Sirkis (PV)0.50% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.32% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.29% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.20% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.17% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.17%	+54.98 pts	Right bloc	76.49%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)68.63% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)15.67% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)8.27% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)3.97% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)2.15% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.74% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.30% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.27%	+67.18 pts	Right bloc	82.69%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.