SP · Santos immediate region

Cubatão: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Cubatão with 55.00% of valid votes against 45.00% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 10.00 points, 6.43 points left of Brazil.

Toss-upSwingBellwether

Lean versus Brazil: −1.95pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 90,324; 65th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 3; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: Yes; Voted for the national winner in every runoff from 2002 to 2026.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Cubatão−10.00 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.00% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)45.00%	−10.00 pts	Left bloc	82.38%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)46.27% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)44.40% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.78% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.03% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.99% Zema (NOVO)0.19% Samara (UP)0.15% Clariana Barao (DC)0.07% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.05% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	−0.62 pts	Left bloc	79.68%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.12% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)47.88%	−4.23 pts	Left bloc	78.36%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.03% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)41.47% Simone Tebet (MDB)4.94% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.40% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.55% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.36% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Léo Péricles (UP)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	−5.13 pts	Left bloc	78.92%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)60.40% Fernando Haddad (PT)39.60%	+20.80 pts	Right bloc	76.29%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)47.53% Fernando Haddad (PT)24.28% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.61% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)7.45% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)3.44% João Amoêdo (NOVO)2.36% Marina Silva (REDE)1.23% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.80% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.61% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.53% Eymael (DC)0.07% Vera (PSTU)0.06% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	+24.38 pts	Right bloc	76.34%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)55.45% Aécio Neves (PSDB)44.55%	−10.90 pts	Left bloc	79.34%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)36.93% Marina Silva (PSB)35.45% Aécio Neves (PSDB)23.11% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.71% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.13% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.85% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.62% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−49.70 pts	Left bloc	80.46%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)61.76% José Serra (PSDB)38.24%	−23.52 pts	Left bloc	81.35%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)47.88% José Serra (PSDB)26.73% Marina Silva (PV)24.33% Plínio (PSOL)0.80% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.09% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.08% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.04% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−46.29 pts	Left bloc	83.44%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.47% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)30.53%	−38.93 pts	Left bloc	84.16%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)56.39% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)34.28% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)7.36% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.63% +3 more José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.22% Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05%	−30.77 pts	Left bloc	85.63%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)69.15% José Serra (PSDB)30.85%	−38.31 pts	Left bloc	84.83%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)55.78% Garotinho (PSB)19.10% José Serra (PSDB)13.71% Ciro (PPS)10.54% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.81% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.06%	−72.59 pts	Left bloc	85.76%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Lula (PT)42.49% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)41.18% Ciro Gomes (PPS)12.57% Enéas (PRONA)2.29% +8 more Eymael (PSDC)0.40% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.27% Sirkis (PV)0.23% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.17% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.10% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.10% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.10% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.09%	−11.34 pts	Left bloc	83.25%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)43.63% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)33.60% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)14.31% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.92% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)2.18% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.56% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.41% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.40%	+31.69 pts	Right bloc	87.60%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the Santos immediate region

Find another municipality

Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.