SP · São Paulo immediate region

Carapicuíba: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Carapicuíba with 55.41% of valid votes against 44.59% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 10.83 points, 7.26 points left of Brazil.

Toss-upSwing

Lean versus Brazil: −2.53pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 290,484; 18th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 3; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 1 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: No; Has voted for the national winner since 2018.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Carapicuíba−10.83 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.41% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)44.59%	−10.83 pts	Left bloc	78.30%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)46.30% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)43.33% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.86% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.40% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.49% Zema (NOVO)0.26% Samara (UP)0.18% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.07% Clariana Barao (DC)0.05% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.03% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−0.91 pts	Left bloc	74.86%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)53.48% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)46.52%	−6.96 pts	Left bloc	78.65%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.03% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)38.43% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.78% Ciro Gomes (PDT)4.23% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.66% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.59% Léo Péricles (UP)0.11% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.05% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.02%	−8.90 pts	Left bloc	78.30%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)58.85% Fernando Haddad (PT)41.15%	+17.71 pts	Right bloc	78.52%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)44.62% Fernando Haddad (PT)23.47% Ciro Gomes (PDT)13.06% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)8.74% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)3.93% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.63% Marina Silva (REDE)1.45% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.28% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.91% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.73% Eymael (DC)0.09% Vera (PSTU)0.06% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.03%	+22.04 pts	Right bloc	78.95%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)50.52% Dilma (PT)49.48%	+1.03 pts	Right bloc	80.07%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)33.60% Marina Silva (PSB)30.86% Aécio Neves (PSDB)30.40% Luciana Genro (PSOL)2.29% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.96% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.84% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.83% Eymael (PSDC)0.09% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.07% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.05% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−35.69 pts	Left bloc	81.90%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)60.92% José Serra (PSDB)39.08%	−21.85 pts	Left bloc	82.92%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)49.78% José Serra (PSDB)27.03% Marina Silva (PV)21.93% Plínio (PSOL)1.00% +5 more Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.08% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.07% Eymael (PSDC)0.07% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−45.65 pts	Left bloc	85.96%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)62.70% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)37.30%	−25.41 pts	Left bloc	84.92%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.51% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)42.64% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)6.57% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.10% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.07% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.04%	−14.36 pts	Left bloc	86.29%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)63.25% José Serra (PSDB)36.75%	−26.50 pts	Left bloc	84.57%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)54.52% José Serra (PSDB)21.91% Garotinho (PSB)14.81% Ciro (PPS)8.11% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.61% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−56.18 pts	Left bloc	84.81%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)50.31% Lula (PT)39.14% Ciro Gomes (PPS)7.09% Enéas (PRONA)2.52% +8 more Eymael (PSDC)0.21% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.19% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.14% Sirkis (PV)0.14% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.07% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.07% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.06% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.06%	+6.64 pts	Right bloc	81.79%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)41.28% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)38.80% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)11.70% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)4.88% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.79% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.76% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.43% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.36%	+20.89 pts	Right bloc	88.53%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2014(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2014(between rounds)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the São Paulo immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.