SP · Itapeva immediate region

Guapiara: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Guapiara with 52.91% of valid votes against 47.09% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 5.83 points, 2.26 points left of Brazil.

Lean leftSwingBellwether

Lean versus Brazil: −6.50pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 13,630; 274th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 3; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 2 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: Yes; Voted for the national winner in every runoff from 2002 to 2026.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Guapiara−5.83 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.91% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)47.09%	−5.83 pts	Left bloc	80.13%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)49.25% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)45.33% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)1.89% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.70% +8 more Renan Santos (MISSÃO)1.56% Zema (NOVO)0.07% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.06% Clariana Barao (DC)0.05% Samara (UP)0.04% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.01%	−2.56 pts	Left bloc	76.48%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)58.40% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)41.60%	−16.80 pts	Left bloc	73.99%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)55.67% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)38.96% Simone Tebet (MDB)3.22% Ciro Gomes (PDT)1.53% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.34% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.14% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.08% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.04% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Léo Péricles (UP)0.02% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.00%	−14.54 pts	Left bloc	72.67%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)52.04% Fernando Haddad (PT)47.96%	+4.09 pts	Right bloc	71.53%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Fernando Haddad (PT)37.50% Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)35.15% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)21.10% Ciro Gomes (PDT)2.71% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)1.00% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)0.80% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.67% Marina Silva (REDE)0.43% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)0.37% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.23% Vera (PSTU)0.02% Eymael (DC)0.01% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.01%	+18.20 pts	Right bloc	71.89%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)50.97% Aécio Neves (PSDB)49.03%	−1.95 pts	Left bloc	69.32%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)50.56% Aécio Neves (PSDB)37.78% Marina Silva (PSB)10.28% Luciana Genro (PSOL)0.51% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.34% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.26% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.16% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.04% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.03% Eymael (PSDC)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−23.55 pts	Left bloc	70.31%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)60.21% José Serra (PSDB)39.79%	−20.43 pts	Left bloc	69.59%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)56.67% José Serra (PSDB)36.41% Marina Silva (PV)6.01% Plínio (PSOL)0.68% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.11% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.05% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.03% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−26.87 pts	Left bloc	71.24%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)53.34% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)46.66%	−6.67 pts	Left bloc	70.87%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)54.37% Lula (PT)42.95% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)1.28% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.18% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.12% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.05% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.04%	+9.17 pts	Right bloc	72.93%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)50.46% José Serra (PSDB)49.54%	−0.91 pts	Left bloc	73.82%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)45.00% José Serra (PSDB)41.66% Garotinho (PSB)8.64% Ciro (PPS)4.33% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.30% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.07%	−16.68 pts	Left bloc	73.94%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)60.63% Lula (PT)27.14% Ciro Gomes (PPS)5.75% Enéas (PRONA)1.57% +8 more Thereza Ruiz (PTN)1.04% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)1.01% Eymael (PSDC)0.81% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.51% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.41% Sirkis (PV)0.41% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.38% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.34%	+29.60 pts	Right bloc	76.42%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)40.30% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)36.14% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)19.62% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)1.68% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)0.81% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.81% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.41% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.22%	+18.58 pts	Right bloc	84.74%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2018(between rounds)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the Itapeva immediate region

Find another municipality

Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.