SP · São Paulo immediate region

Rio Grande da Serra: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Lula won Rio Grande da Serra with 58.01% of valid votes against 41.99% for Flavio Bolsonaro: a margin of 16.01 points, 12.44 points left of Brazil.

Lean leftSwingBellwether

Lean versus Brazil: −5.95pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 33,724; 146th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 3; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994.
Bellwether?: Yes; Voted for the national winner in every runoff from 2002 to 2026.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Rio Grande da Serra−16.01 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Lula (PT)58.01% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)41.99%	−16.01 pts	Left bloc	81.72%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Lula (PT)48.89% Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)40.96% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)4.19% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.26% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)1.94% Samara (UP)0.29% Zema (NOVO)0.23% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.08% Clariana Barao (DC)0.06% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.03%	−7.02 pts	Left bloc	79.69%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Lula (PT)55.55% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)44.45%	−11.09 pts	Left bloc	78.90%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Lula (PT)52.38% Jair Bolsonaro (PL)36.89% Simone Tebet (MDB)5.55% Ciro Gomes (PDT)3.78% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.70% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.45% Léo Péricles (UP)0.11% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.05% Vera (PSTU)0.03% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.03%	−12.67 pts	Left bloc	79.05%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)59.16% Fernando Haddad (PT)40.84%	+18.32 pts	Right bloc	78.12%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)45.63% Fernando Haddad (PT)23.23% Ciro Gomes (PDT)12.54% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)8.84% +9 more Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)2.26% João Amoêdo (NOVO)2.03% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.84% Marina Silva (REDE)1.53% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.95% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.89% Eymael (DC)0.14% Vera (PSTU)0.10% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.02%	+23.26 pts	Right bloc	79.10%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Dilma (PT)50.62% Aécio Neves (PSDB)49.38%	−1.25 pts	Left bloc	80.46%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Dilma (PT)36.78% Marina Silva (PSB)31.18% Aécio Neves (PSDB)26.65% Luciana Genro (PSOL)1.92% +7 more Pastor Everaldo (PSC)1.56% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.99% Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.67% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.09% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.09% Eymael (PSDC)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.04%	−41.52 pts	Left bloc	82.15%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	Dilma (PT)54.70% José Serra (PSDB)45.30%	−9.41 pts	Left bloc	81.67%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)43.99% José Serra (PSDB)34.19% Marina Silva (PV)20.80% Plínio (PSOL)0.71% +5 more Eymael (PSDC)0.10% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.09% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.08% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.03% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.02%	−31.26 pts	Left bloc	83.41%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)59.52% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)40.48%	−19.05 pts	Left bloc	82.69%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Lula (PT)47.17% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)45.15% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)6.23% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)1.08% +3 more José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.20% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.09% Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.08%	−8.94 pts	Left bloc	83.52%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)60.89% José Serra (PSDB)39.11%	−21.79 pts	Left bloc	81.93%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)50.36% Garotinho (PSB)22.54% José Serra (PSDB)17.19% Ciro (PPS)8.71% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)1.12% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.08%	−65.62 pts	Left bloc	82.16%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Lula (PT)51.67% Fernando Henrique (PSDB)31.34% Ciro Gomes (PPS)9.73% Enéas (PRONA)4.02% +8 more Eymael (PSDC)0.88% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.46% Sirkis (PV)0.44% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.35% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.26% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.25% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.24%	−25.82 pts	Left bloc	84.17%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)46.68% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)31.13% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)11.35% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)8.43% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.23% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.52% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.38% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.29%	+5.61 pts	Right bloc	88.49%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

1998(Round 1)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2018(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2022(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc

Other municipalities in the São Paulo immediate region

Find another municipality

Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.