SP · São Paulo immediate region

Vargem Grande Paulista: how it voted for president

In the 2026 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro won Vargem Grande Paulista with 54.40% of valid votes against 45.60% for Lula: a margin of 8.79 points, 12.36 points right of Brazil.

Likely rightSwing

Lean versus Brazil: +14.81pts; Weighted mean of the municipality's right − left margin minus Brazil's in the 2026, 2022, 2018 and 2014 runoffs.
Electorate (2026): 42,998; 122th largest electorate in São Paulo
Side changes: 2; Times the leading bloc changed from one election to the next, in 9 elections since 1994. Plus 2 turn(s) between round 1 and round 2 of the same year.
Bellwether?: No; Did not vote for the national winner in the 2026 runoff.

On the map of São Paulo

2026 runoff, colored by margin: pale in tight races, deep in landslides. Click a municipality to open its page.

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← Left bloc aheadRight bloc ahead →

Margin in percentage points of valid votes (right − left).

Municipality, state and Brazil

Right − left margin in the 2026 runoff, in percentage points.

Vargem Grande Paulista+8.79 pts
São Paulo+7.69 pts
Brazil−3.57 pts

Negative = left ahead; positive = right ahead.

Margin over time

Right − left margin in each election (the runoff where there was one), compared with Brazil's.

Every election

Year	Round	Candidates (% of valid votes)	Margin (right − left)	Bloc ahead	Turnout
2026 10/25/2026	Round 2	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)54.40% Lula (PT)45.60%	+8.79 pts	Right bloc	79.95%
2026 10/04/2026	Round 1	Flavio Bolsonaro (PL)52.08% Lula (PT)36.84% Escritor Augusto Cury (AVANTE)3.97% Renan Santos (MISSÃO)3.77% +8 more Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)2.63% Zema (NOVO)0.34% Samara (UP)0.18% Hertz Dias (PSTU)0.07% Clariana Barao (DC)0.06% Edmilson Costa (PCB)0.02% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02% Veterinário Wilson Grassi (DEMOCRATA)0.02%	+17.79 pts	Right bloc	77.53%
2022 10/30/2022	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)53.98% Lula (PT)46.02%	+7.96 pts	Right bloc	80.40%
2022 10/02/2022	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PL)45.43% Lula (PT)42.12% Simone Tebet (MDB)6.92% Ciro Gomes (PDT)4.03% +7 more Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO)0.64% Felipe D Avila (NOVO)0.62% Sofia Manzano (PCB)0.06% Padre Kelmon (PTB)0.06% Léo Péricles (UP)0.05% Vera (PSTU)0.04% Constituinte Eymael (DC)0.03%	+7.40 pts	Right bloc	80.27%
2018 10/28/2018	Round 2	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)66.29% Fernando Haddad (PT)33.71%	+32.58 pts	Right bloc	79.07%
2018 10/07/2018	Round 1	Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)49.07% Fernando Haddad (PT)17.44% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)12.53% Ciro Gomes (PDT)11.37% +9 more João Amoêdo (NOVO)4.22% Marina Silva (REDE)1.36% Cabo Daciolo (PATRI)1.28% Henrique Meirelles (MDB)1.26% Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.69% Alvaro Dias (PODE)0.66% Eymael (DC)0.07% Vera (PSTU)0.04% João Goulart Filho (PPL)0.01%	+38.18 pts	Right bloc	79.89%
2014 10/26/2014	Round 2	Aécio Neves (PSDB)60.73% Dilma (PT)39.27%	+21.45 pts	Right bloc	79.96%
2014 10/05/2014	Round 1	Aécio Neves (PSDB)39.67% Marina Silva (PSB)28.92% Dilma (PT)26.92% Luciana Genro (PSOL)2.04% +7 more Eduardo Jorge (PV)0.91% Pastor Everaldo (PSC)0.72% Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.58% Eymael (PSDC)0.12% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.06% Mauro Iasi (PCB)0.03% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.02%	−17.80 pts	Left bloc	81.72%
2010 10/31/2010	Round 2	José Serra (PSDB)50.76% Dilma (PT)49.24%	+1.52 pts	Right bloc	81.21%
2010 10/03/2010	Round 1	Dilma (PT)40.92% José Serra (PSDB)38.54% Marina Silva (PV)19.51% Plínio (PSOL)0.80% +5 more Levy Fidelix (PRTB)0.07% Eymael (PSDC)0.06% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.05% Ivan Pinheiro (PCB)0.04% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.01%	−22.66 pts	Left bloc	83.71%
2006 10/29/2006	Round 2	Lula (PT)52.55% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)47.45%	−5.09 pts	Left bloc	82.55%
2006 10/01/2006	Round 1	Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)51.98% Lula (PT)40.19% Heloísa Helena (PSOL)6.66% Cristovam Buarque (PDT)0.99% +3 more Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)0.08% Luciano Bivar (PSL)0.06% José Maria Eymael (PSDC)0.03%	+4.32 pts	Right bloc	83.88%
2002 10/27/2002	Round 2	Lula (PT)53.65% José Serra (PSDB)46.35%	−7.30 pts	Left bloc	80.91%
2002 10/06/2002	Round 1	Lula (PT)44.25% José Serra (PSDB)30.38% Garotinho (PSB)14.49% Ciro (PPS)10.10% +2 more Zé Maria (PSTU)0.69% Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)0.08%	−39.23 pts	Left bloc	81.35%
1998 10/04/1998	Round 1	Fernando Henrique (PSDB)60.98% Lula (PT)25.34% Ciro Gomes (PPS)6.83% Enéas (PRONA)3.33% +8 more Eymael (PSDC)0.69% João de Deus Barbosa (PT do B)0.59% Sirkis (PV)0.52% Zé Maria (PSTU)0.41% Thereza Ruiz (PTN)0.36% Brigadeiro Ivan Frota (PMN)0.36% Sergio Bueno (PSC)0.31% Vasco Neto (PSN)0.27%	+31.88 pts	Right bloc	82.19%
1994 10/03/1994	Round 1	Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)57.66% Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)21.47% Orestes Quercia (PMDB)10.43% Eneas Ferreira Carneiro (PRONA)7.38% +4 more Esperidiao Amin Helou Filho (PPR)1.69% Leonel de Moura Brizola (PDT)0.64% Carlos Antonio Gomes (PRN)0.45% Hernani Goulart Fortuna (PSC)0.28%	+55.78 pts	Right bloc	85.64%

Percentages of valid votes in the municipality. Turnout = voters over the electorate. Source: TSE.

When the municipality changed sides

2002(Round 2)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2006(between rounds)·Right bloc→Left bloc
2010(Round 2)·Left bloc→Right bloc
2010(between rounds)·Left bloc→Right bloc

Other municipalities in the São Paulo immediate region

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Official TSE results by municipality (1994–2026); the 2026 runoff comes from the TSE's official results publication. Every municipality's index can be downloaded at /dados.